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EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 25 January

Yesterday's session brought French and German Manufacturing PMI figures. French private sector activity continued to grow at a strong pace in January, underlining optimism over the economic outlook of the euro zone’s second largest economy, preliminary data showed on Wednesday. The preliminary services purchasing managers’ index improved to a seasonally adjusted 59.3 this month. The reading came in above expectations for 58.9 and up from 59.1 in December. In contrast, the French manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 58.1 this month, missing expectations for 58.7 and down from 58.8 a month earlier.

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GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 25 January

Focus of the yesterday's session was on UK job figures. There were 32.21 million people in work, 102,000 more than for June to August 2017 and 415,000 more than for a year earlier. The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.8% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.  Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.5% including bonuses and by 2.4% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

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AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 25 January

From Australia, yesterday MI Lesading Index figures were released. The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, jumped from +0.66% in November to +1.41% in December.This is a very strong above trend reading and, following the solid results in October and November, points to solid above trend growth in the early part of 2018. However, in our view there are still key negatives around housing, household incomes and the consumer which are likely to challenge the sustainability of any upswing in 2018.

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EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 24 January

Focus of the yesterday's session was on ZEW Economic Sentiment figures. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany climbed 3.0 points in January 2018, currently standing at 20.4 points. The indicator thus still remains slightly below the long-term average of 23.7 points. The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany increased by 5.9 points, with the corresponding indicator currently standing at 95.2 points.  “The latest survey results reveal an optimistic outlook for the German economy in the first six months of 2018. With 95.2 out of 100 points, this is the most positive assessment of the current economic situation since the introduction of the survey in December 1991.” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

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