GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 29 February

After it was initially pushed higher and even broke above 1.40 handle, Sterling found significant amount of resistance around 1.4050 handle, and pulled back sharply all the way to 1.3850 handle, thus forming a massive shooting star which is of course a negative sign. As for Monday any type of supportive candles around 1.38 level and 1.3780 area, would be short-term buying signal, while resistive candles near 1.3939 area, would offer short-term buying opportunity.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 29 February

Friday brought UK Consumer Confidence data. British consumer morale fell to its lowest in over a year in February as concerns over the economic outlook hurt sentiment, a survey showed on Friday. Market research firm GfK said its overall consumer sentiment indicator fell to 0 in February from +4 in January - its lowest since December 2014. "Despite the positive impact of continued low interest rates and subdued inflation on our day-to-day household budgets, the feeble outlook for growth and a variety of economic uncertainties since the start of the year has depressed our New Year optimism," Joe Staton, head of market dynamics at GfK, said. 

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 29 February – 04 March

Pound broke below 1.40 handle in the course of the last week,and went all the way to 1.3850 handle, with a weekly closing near weekly lows which is of course additional bearish sign. Downtrend is caused mostly on Brexit concerns and dovish BoE's comments concerning interest rates. Focus of next week will be on UK PMI figures and US NFP data. Weaker than expected data would push pair lower with support around 1.3750 and 1.37 level in extension, so this is where we would consider buying the pair in short term-trends. On the other hand, better than forecasted figures would lead to the uptrend all the way to 1.3950 and 1.40 handle where we can expect major resistance and short-term selling opportunity.

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 29 February – 04 March

Events that marked the week:

Though there were no major data releases from the UK at the beginning of the week, Sterling was pushed significantly lower on Brexit concerns. The UK will vote on whether to remain in the EU on Thursday 23 June, Prime Minister David Cameron has said. The prime minister made his historic announcement in Downing Street after briefing the cabinet. He said he would be campaigning to remain in a reformed EU - and described the vote as one of the biggest decisions "in our lifetimes". Ministers immediately divided up into the leave and remain camps as the campaigns got under way in earnest. Read more...