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Events that marked the week:

Only French Industrial Production figures were released from Eurozone, on Tuesday. In December 2014, French manufacturing output bounced back (+1.2%, after –0.5% in November), as in industrial production as a whole (+1.5% after –0.2% in November). Analysts were expecting smaller incline by 0.3% in industrial production. This rebound affected all branches.

There were no major data releases from Eurozone, on Wednesday, so markets were turned to global concerns, primarily crisis concerning Greek bailout programme. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras won a confidence vote on his plan to cancel bailout programme and challenge European leaders as both sides prepare for a showdown at meetings in Brussels this week. "We are not negotiating the bailout; it was cancelled by its own failure," he told parliament before winning the vote with the backing of 162 lawmakers in the 300-seat chamber.

 

"I want to assure you that there is no going back. Greece cannot return to the era of bailouts." That came after Schaeuble said that if Greece did not want a new aid programme, "then that's it," adding to a chorus of warnings from European policymakers urging Athens to seek an extension to the programme when it expires at the end of the month. European Commission would propose a six-month extension to Greece’s existing bailout program at an emergency meeting of the euro group of finance ministers, which began on Wednesday, but there was no decision made.

 

Focus of the European part of the session on Friday was on French, German, Italian and Eurozone GDP data. In Q4 2014, French GDP in volume terms increased by 0.1%, in line with market forecasts. Over the year, GDP rose by 0.4% as in 2013.Household consumption expenditure increased slightly by the end of the year (+0.2% after +0.3% in Q3 2014). Conversely, total gross fixed capital formation still decreased (–0.5% after –0.6%).Thus, final domestic demand rose slightly and contributed for +0.1 points to GDP after +0.2 points in Q3.

 

The German economy gained momentum towards the end of 2014. In the fourth quarter of 2014, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.7% on the third quarter of 2014 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. Analysts were anticipating smaller increase by 0.4%. Following a dynamic start into the year (+0.8% in the first quarter) and the subsequent period of weakness last summer (–0.1% in the second, and +0.1% in the third quarter), the economic situation stabilised towards the end of the year.

 

Seasonally adjusted Eurozone GDP rose by 0.3% in the euro area (EA18) and by 0.4% in the EU28 during the fourth quarter of 2014, compared with the previous quarter, according to flash estimates. Analysts were anticipating 0.2% incline. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.9% in the euro area and by 1.3% in the EU28 in the fourth quarter of 2014, after +0.8% and +1.3% respectively in the previous quarter.

 

Earlier on Friday, Italian GDP figures were released, showing data in line with market forecasts. In the fourth quarter of 2014 the seasonally and calendar adjusted, chained volume measure of Gross domestic product (GDP) remained unchanged with respect to the third quarter of 2014 and decreased by 0.3 percent in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2013.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment/ ZEW Economic Sentiment (Tuesday 11:00)

French Flash Manufacturing PMI/French Flash Services PMI (Friday 9:00)

German Flash Manufacturing PMI/German Flash Services PMI (Friday 9:30)

Flash Manufacturing PMI/ Flash Services PMI (Friday 10:00)

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