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AUD/USD moved up nicely on upbeat data but was unable to close at the highs. The RBA left the interest rates unchanged as widely expected and did not rock the boat. The GDP report gave a boost to the Australian dollar with an increase of 1%, better than expected and reflecting robust growth. Also, Australia’s retail sales beat early estimates with an increase of 0.4%.

In the US, data was OK but the USD ignored it. Concerns about global trade crept in towards the end of the week as US President Trump adopted a more aggressive approach. The A$, a risk currency, was unable to close at the highs.

The jobs report is the main event of the week, but the mood in markets may have a significant impact as well.

Major events in the coming week:

  1. NAB Business Confidence:  Tuesday, 1:30. National Australia Bank showed an increase to 10 points in its monthly survey of around 350 businesses. A similar score is likely now.
  2. Home Loans: Tuesday, 1:30. This volatile gauge of the housing sector dropped in March by 2.2%. Figures for April which are projected to show a drop of 1.7%.
  3. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30.
  4. Phillip Lowe speaks Wednesday, 2:00. The RBA Governor will speak in Melbourne about “Productivity, Wages, and Prosperity”. Hints about monetary policy expected.
  5. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. The Melbourne Institute’s measure of inflation fills a vacuum that the government leaves by publishing inflation figures only once per quarter. It showed a gain of 3.7% last time.
  6. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. After reporting a jobs increase of 22.6K in April, a similar gain of 19.2K positions is on the cards for May. The unemployment is forecast to remain at 5.6%.
  7. Chinese Industrial Production: Thursday, 2:00. Australia’s No. 1 trading partner has enjoyed a growth rate of 7% y/y in industrial output in April, and is expected to maintain the level in May.
  8. Luci Ellis speaks Friday, 3:30. The RBA Assistant Governor will speak in Sydnay and will also answer questions from the audience.

(All times are GMT)

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