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GBP/USD Weekly Forecast - 4 June - 8 June

Saturday, Jun 02 2018
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast - 4 June - 8 June

GBP/USD managed to close the week on higher ground for a change. The pound was driven mostly by the crisis in Italy that hit the euro and took the pound down with it. A flight to safety did not help Sterling. In the UK, the manufacturing PMI came out slightly above expectations at 54.4 and that helped the recovery. In the US, the Non-Farm Payrolls report beat expectations with a gain of 223K and a rise in wages of 0.3% MoM.

What’s next? The Services PMI stands and also Brexit negotiations are expected to warm up.

Major events in the coming week:

  1. Construction PMI: Monday, 8:30. The second purchasing managers’ index of the week comes from the more volatile construction sector. A bounce back to 52.5 was seen in April, reflecting modest growth. A small slide to 52 is on the cards.
  2. Silvana Tenreyro talks: Monday, 17:00 and Wednesday, 10:40. The External BOE MPC member will speak on two occasions. She is relatively new at the Monetary Policy Committee and her twin appearances will shed some light on her views.
  3. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Monday, 23:01.
  4. Services PMI: Tuesday, 8:30. The last purchasing managers’ index published in the UK is also the most important one, for the services sector, Britain’s largest. The score disappointed in April with 52.8 points, still reflecting a modest growth rate that spills into the second quarter. The figure for May is published now. A drop to 52.9 is on the cards.
  5. Jon Cunliffe talks: Tuesday, 10:00. The Deputy Governor has expressed a dovish sentiment in the past. Any deviation from these views may boost the pound. Cunliffe retires later this year.
  6. Ian McCafferty talks: Wednesday, 16:00. This external MPC member will talk on radio. McCafferty has expressed hawkish views. A turn to the dovish side may weigh on the pound.
  7. Halifax HPI: Thursday, 7:30. It has shown a bit drop of 3.1% in prices in April and is forecast to show a bump up of 1.1% in May.
  8. David Ramsden talks: Thursday, 15:00.
  9. Consumer Inflation Expectations: Friday, 8:30.

(All times are GMT)

More in this category: « GBP/USD Weekly Forecast - 28 May - 1 June EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 4 June - 8 June »

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