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EUR/USD had another negative week, falling to the lowest levels in 5 months. PMI figures and the ECB meeting minutes stand out in coming week’s events.

German GDP disappointed with a growth rate of only 0.3% q/q in the first quarter while inflation was confirmed at low levels. Italy moved to the forefront with the formation of a government that plans to cut taxes and spend money, enlarging the debt. More radical plans such as writing down €250 billion of debt were dropped, but markets became jittery and the euro suffered. In the US, 10-year bond yields reached new highs at 3.13%, helping the US Dollar. American data was alright but not outstanding.

Major events in the coming week:

  1. ECB Financial Stability Review:  Monday, 8:00. This report comes after improvements in the situation of Italian banks but the country is about to embark on a new political-economic path.
  2. Flash PMI: Wednesday morning: Data for France at 7:00, for Germany at 7:30, and for the whole euro-zone at 8:00. Manufacturing and Services PMI data for the three is expected to remain close to earlier month’s figures.
  3. Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 14:00. EuroStat’s survey stood at 0 points in April, a balance between optimism and pessimism. A rise to 1 point is on the cards now.
  4. German GDP: Thursday, 6:00. Expected to confirm the initial read of 0.3% q/q for Q1 2018.
  5. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00.
  6. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Thursday, 11:30. The European Central Bank did not change its policies in April and refrained from making any announcement. ECB President Mario Draghi described the economic slowdown as a “moderation”. The meeting minutes from that event will provide a look into the deliberations within the Governing Council. The minutes will help shape expectations and will move the euro.
  7. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Thursday, 13:00.
  8. German Ifo Business Climate:  Friday, 8:00. Ifo, Germany’s No. 1 Think-tank, showed a slide in business confidence, to a score of 102.1 points in April. a minor drop to 102 is expected.

(All times are GMT)

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