AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 26 February

Sunday, Feb 25 2018

Events that marked the week:

From Australia, on Tuesday, RBA Meeting Minutes were released. Early morning session brought RBA Meeting Minutes. Over 2017, progress had been made in reducing the unemployment rate and bringing inflation closer to target. The low level of interest rates was continuing to play a role in achieving this outcome. Further progress on these goals was expected over the period ahead but the increase in inflation was likely to occur only gradually as the economy strengthened; the Bank's central forecast for the Australian economy was for GDP growth to pick up to average a little above 3 per cent over the next two years and for CPI inflation to be a little above 2 per cent in 2018.

Members observed that an appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than forecast. Taking into account the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.

Wednesday brought Wage Price Index and Construction Work Done figures. The seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.6 per cent in December quarter 2017 according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The WPI rose 2.1 per cent through the year seasonally adjusted to December quarter 2017. ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said "The annual rate of wage growth has increased for the second consecutive quarter reflecting falling unemployment and underemployment rates, and increasing job vacancy levels." Seasonally adjusted, private sector wages rose 1.9 per cent and public sector wages grew 2.4 per cent through the year to December quarter 2017.

Separate report on Construction Work Done showed that Tte trend estimate for total construction work done rose 1.1% in the December quarter 2017. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total construction work done fell 19.4% to $50,320.7m in the December quarter. The trend estimate for total building work done rose 0.5% in the December quarter. The trend estimate for non-residential building work rose 2.5% and residential building work fell 0.7%. The seasonally adjusted estimate of total building work done rose 0.2% to $28,124.0m in the December quarter.

This week markets will be looking at:

China Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday 4:00)

Private Capital Expenditure (Thursday 1:30)

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