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GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 02 October – 06 October

Saturday, Sep 30 2017
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 02 October – 06 October

Events that marked the week:

From the UK, on Wednesday, CBI Realized Sales figures were published. The survey of 117 respondents, including 55 retail firms, found that sales for the time of year were considered to be slightly above seasonal norms. Growth in internet sales volumes rose in the year to September, to slightly above the long-run average, and are expected to expand at a somewhat slower pace in October. 56% of retailers said that sales volumes were up in September compared with a year ago, whilst 15% said they were down, giving a balance of +42% - the highest since September 2015 (+49%). This was also above expectations (+19%).

Friday's session brought UK Current Account and Final GDP figures. The UK’s current account deficit was £23.2 billion (4.6% of gross domestic product) in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017, a widening of £0.9 billion from a revised deficit of £22.3 billion (4.4% of gross domestic product) in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017. The widening in the current account deficit was driven by a widening to the deficit on primary and secondary incomes, which widened £1.4 billion and £1.9 billion respectively; these were mostly offset by a narrowing of the deficit on trade in goods which narrowed £2.3 billion in Quarter 2 2017.

 

UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.3% between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) and Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017, unrevised from the second estimate of GDP. Services provided the only positive contribution to growth in Quarter 2 2017, with the output measure of GDP unrevised at 0.3%. Despite some small downward revisions to quarter-on-quarter growth in 2016, between 2015 and 2016, UK GDP grew by 1.8%, unrevised from the previous estimate.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Manufacturing PMI (Monday 10:30)

Construction PMI (Tuesday 10:30)

Services PMI (Wednesday 10:30)

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