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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – 25 September – 29 September

Friday, Sep 22 2017
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – 25 September – 29 September

Events that marked the week:

Focus of the Tuesday's session was on RBA Meeting Minutes.  After the ECB and then the BOC complained about the exchange rate, the RBA followed suit. It seems that everybody except the BOE wants a lower currency. For Australia’s central bank, it is certainly not the first time. While the recent meeting minutes do not shed any surprising new light, they serve to keep the pressure on the Australian dollar.

The minutes from the September meeting say that the stronger exchange rate weighs on domestic growth an inflation. Any additional increase in the value of the currency could result in a slower pick-up in inflation and growth. This is not new and they also acknowledge that AUD/USD is driven higher by the weakness of the greenback as well. Nevertheless, this has its effect on the pair.

 

There were no data releases from Australia in the rest of the week. In view of Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, AUD/USD has generally held up well but still seems pricey above 0.80 as iron ore futures prices in Shanghai have fallen almost without interruption this month, to lows since late July. “Coal is holding up better but overall, Australia’s key commodity prices reinforce our fair value model’s warning that there is probably greater downside risk than upside risk on AUD/USD.”

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Friday 3:45)

More in this category: « EUR//USD Weekly Forecast – 18 September – 22 September GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 25 September – 29 September »

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