Unemployment rate fell to 5.8%, also beating market expectations on a decline to 5.9%. For September to November 2014, there were 1.91 million unemployed people. This was 58,000 fewer than for June to August 2014, the smallest quarterly fall since July to September 2013. Comparing September to November 2014 with a year earlier, there were 418,000 fewer unemployed people. Average Earnings were in line market forecasts, up by 1.7%.
BoE Meeting Minutes showed that members were unanimous in deciding to leave interest rates unchanged, opposite of predictions on two votes for the rate hike. The Monetary Policy Committee forecasted that U.K. inflation may drop to zero in the first quarter and there’s a ''roughly equal chance'' that it could drop below that level. The MPC said policy ''could and would be adjusted'' if needed to meet the 2% price target.
''The fall in near-term inflation might become more persistent if it lowered inflation expectations, pay and other cost growth in a way that became self-perpetuating,'' minutes of the Jan. 7-8 meeting published today showed. There was a risk of ''inflation persisting below the target for longer than previously expected.''
Thursday's session was marked by Public Sector Net Borrowing and CBI Industrial Orders Expectations figures. Public sector borrowing (the difference between spending and income) was £12.5 billion in December 2014, below expected balance of £9.2 billion. This additional borrowing needed to balance the public sector’s accounts means that between April and December 2014 the public sector borrowed £86.3 billion, a fall of £0.1 billion compared with the same period last year, as illustrated above. Between April and December 2014 central government’s income was £438.8 billion.
CBI Industrial Orders Expectations data for January showed that total order books among manufacturers remained strong (balance of +4%) while export order books weakened (-20%). However, analysts were forecasting a balance of +6%.
Focus of the Friday's session was on UK Retail Sales figures. On the month, the quantity bought increased by 0.4% compared with November 2014 following an increase in November of 1.6%. This was better than expected decrease by 0.6%. Some stores experienced better sales in November 2014 as a result of ‘Black Friday’ which may have reduced sales in December 2014.
This week markets will be looking at:
BBA Mortgage Approvals (Monday 10:30)
Prelim GDP (Tuesday 10:30)
Nationwide HPI (Thursday 8:00)
CBI Realized Sales (Thursday 12:00)
Net Lending to Individuals (Friday 10:30)