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GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 24 July – 28 July

Friday, Jul 21 2017
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 24 July – 28 July

Events that marked the week:

Tuesday's session was marked by UK CPI and PPI figures. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH, not a National Statistic) 12-month inflation rate was 2.6% in June 2017, down from 2.7% in May 2017. This is the first fall in the CPIH inflation rate since April 2016, although it remains higher than in recent years. Falling prices for motor fuels and certain recreational and cultural goods and services were the main contributors to the fall in the rate. These downward contributions were partially offset by rising prices for furniture and furnishings. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.6% in June 2017, down from 2.9% in May 2017. The annual rate of inflation for goods leaving the factory gate slowed for the second time this year in June and follows a steep decline in input price inflation since January 2017.

 

Factory gate prices (output prices) rose 3.3% on the year to June 2017 from 3.6% in May 2017, which is the slowest rate prices have increased since December 2016. Input prices rose 9.9% on the year to June 2017 from 12.1% in May 2017, meaning the annual rate has fallen 10 percentage points since January 2017. Inputs of crude oil is the main driver of the recent slowing of input price inflation as annual price growth for crude oil fell from 88.9% in February 2017 to 9.1% in June 2017.

 

From the UK, on Thursday, Retail Sales figures were released. In the 3 months to June 2017, the quantity bought (volume) in the retail industry is estimated to have increased by 1.5%, with increases seen across all store types. The growth for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017 follows a decline of 1.4% in Quarter 1 (Jan Mar) 2017, meaning we are broadly at the same level as at the start of 2017. Compared with May 2017, the quantity bought increased by 0.6%, with non-food stores providing the main contribution.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Prelim GDP (Wednesday 10:30)

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