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Events that marked the week:

On Tuesday NAB Business Confidence figures were published. Business conditions saw an impressive rebound this month, largely unwinding the steady downward trend seen since mid-2016. The business conditions index (an average of trading conditions (sales), profitability and employment) jumped 5 points, to +11 index points, which is well above the long-run average for the series (+5). Meanwhile, business confidence has been quite steady over the past year, and December was no different. The confidence index was unchanged at +6 index points, consistent with the long run average.

Thursday was marked by Trade Balance and Building Approvals data.A huge rebound in commodity exports has delivered a record trade surplus of $3.5 billion in December. Previous record surplus was $2.24 billion in February 2009. The value of iron ore exports jumped by $1 billion in December alone. The surplus expanded by 72 per cent on the upwardly revised $2 billion reported in November, which broke the sequence of 30 consecutive months of deficits. The Bureau of Statistics figures showed that the value of exports jumped by a solid 5 per cent to $32.6 billion, while imports edged up 1 per cent.

 

Separate report on Building Approvals showed that the number of dwellings approved fell 2.5 per cent in December 2016, in trend terms, and has fallen for seven consecutive months. In seasonally adjusted terms, dwelling approvals decreased by 1.2 per cent in December, driven by a fall in total house approvals (2.2 per cent). Total dwellings excluding houses rose 0.1 per cent. The value of total building approved fell 3.5 per cent in December, in trend terms, and has fallen for five months. The value of residential building fell 2.4 per cent while non-residential building fell 5.6 per cent.

 

There were no data releases from Australia on Friday, but from China Manufacturing PMI figures were released. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI was 51.0 in January, down 0.9 points from the previous month and lower than the average level in the fourth quarter last year. The sub-indices for output and new orders both weakened sharply from those in the preceding month, while stocks of purchases and finished goods both slid into contraction territory.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Retail Sales (Monday 1:30)

Cash Rate/RBA Rate Statement (Tuesday 4:30)

China's Trade Balance (Friday)

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