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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast - 05 January - 09 January

Friday, Jan 02 2015

Events that marked the week:

 

There were no major data releases from Eurozone during the week, but it was marked by Greek parliamentary vote for the president. Greece will have to face with the snap parliamentary elections as only 168 lawmakers in the 300-seat chamber backed Prime Minister Antonio Samaras’s nominee for president, Stavros Dimas, short of the 180 votes required. Under the constitution, the legislature will now be dissolved and a date for elections set within the next 10 days.

Samaras said he will ask for the election to be held on January 25. The elections could bring the leftwing Syriza party led by Alexis Tsipras to power and derail an international bailout. Syriza party is ahead of Samaras’s New Democracy movement in opinion polls.

 

From Eurozone, on Tuesday, Spanish CPI and M3 Money Supply figures were released. While analysts were predicting 0.7% decline the latest data showed that Spanish CPI fell by 1.1%. This decrease is mainly explained by the lower prices of fuels (diesel and petrol), compared with the increase recorded in 2013.

 

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 3.1% in November 2014, from 2.5% in October 2014. Analysts were anticipating 2.6% increase. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from September 2014 to November 2014 increased to 2.7%, from 2.3% in the period from August 2014 to October 2014. 

 

European part of Friday's session was marked by Spanish and Italian Manufacturing PMI. Spanish Manufacturing PMI fell from November’s 89month high of 54.7 to 53.8 in December. Analysts were anticipating increase to 54.9. Operating conditions in the sector have now improved for 13 successive months and the latest index reading was above the average for this sequence.

 

While analysts were predicting incline to 49.6, Italian Manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.4. It is lowest reading for 19 months in December, and signalled a further deterioration in the health of the goods-producing sector. Following back-to-back readings of 49.0 in the previous two months, the headline PMI’s quarterly average was the lowest since Q2 2013 and well down on the 53.3 recorded over the second quarter of this year.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

German Prelim CPI (Monday)

Spanish Unemployment Change (Monday 9:00)

Spanish Services PMI (Tuesday 9:15)

Italian Services PMI (Tuesday 9:45)

German Retail Sales (Wednesday 8:00)

German Unemployment Change (Wednesday 9:55)

CPI Flash Estimate (Wednesday 11:00)

Unemployment Rate (Wednesday 11:00)

Retail Sales (Thursday 11:00)

French Industrial Production (Friday 8:45)

More in this category: « GBP/USD Weekly Forecast - 05 January - 09 January AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 12 January - 16 January »

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