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Events that marked the week:

Monday brought German Retail Sales, Eurozone CPI and GDP figures.  Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the first nine months 2016 in real terms 2.1% and in nominal terms 2.2% larger than in in the corresponding period of the previous year. When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations (Census-X-12-ARIMA), the September turnover was in real terms 1.4% and in nominal terms 1.1% smaller than that in August 2016.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 0.5% in October 2016, up from 0.4% in September 2016, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, services is expected to have the highest annual rate in October (1.1%, stable compared with September), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (0.4%, compared with 0.7% in September), non-energy industrial goods (0.3%, stable compared with September) and energy (-0.9%, compared with -3.0% in September).

 

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.4% in the EU28 during the third quarter of 2016, compared with the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2016, GDP had also grown by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU28. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.8% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2016, after +1.6% and +1.8% also in the previous quarter.

 

From Eurozone, on Wednesday, Spanish Manufacturing PMI figures were released. The health of the Spanish manufacturing sector improved at a stronger rate during October amid faster rises in output and new orders. Firms took on extra staff as a result and continued to increase their input buying. Meanwhile, the rate of input cost inflation picked up and output prices were raised accordingly. At 53.3 in October, the PMI was up from the reading of 52.3 in September to signal a stronger improvement in operating conditions in the Spanish manufacturing sector. The health of the sector has now strengthened in each of the past 35 months, with the latest improvement the greatest since April.

 

On Thursday Spanish Unemployment Change figures were published. The number of unemployed registered at the offices of the Public Employment Services increased in October at 44,685 persons in relation to the previous month. In the last 10 years in this month registered unemployment increased by an average of 92.859 people. Thus, the total number of registered unemployed stood at 3,764,982, and continues at lower levels of the last 7 years. In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment is reduced by 48,007 people in October. This is the strongest reduction in October. The monthly change of seasonally adjusted unemployment has fallen in 41 of the last 42 months.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

German Factory Orders (Monday 8:00)

German Industrial Production (Tuesday 8:00)

Last modified on Friday, 04 November 2016

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