Tuesday brought NAB Business Confidence figures. This month’s NAB Business Survey was undertaken right amidst the heightened uncertainty around the Brexit referendum, and ahead of the Australian Federal election. Despite the disruptive nature of these events (evident in the financial market volatility following the Brexit vote), it was encouraging to see that business confidence continued to see support from consistently above average conditions in non-mining sectors. In fact, business confidence jumped in June to +6 index points, which is consistent with long-run confidence levels.
There were no major data releases from Australia on Wednesday, but from China Trade Balance figures were released.Imports also shrank more than forecast, suggesting the impact of a flurry of measures to stimulate growth in the world's second-largest economy may be fading, after encouraging readings in May. Exports fell 4.8 percent in June from a year earlier and were down 7.7 percent in the first half of 2016, while imports dropped 8.4 percent from a year earlier. That resulted in a trade surplus of $48.11 billion in June, versus forecasts of $46.64 billion and May's $49.98 billion.Economists polled by Reuters had expected June exports to fall 4.1 percent, matching May's decline, and expected imports to fall 5 percent, following May's 0.4 percent dip.
Focus of the Thursday's session was on Australian job figures. Employment increased 7,900 to 11,939,600. This was below forecasted increase by 10,100. Full-time employment increased 38,400 to 8,198,900 and part-time employment decreased 30,600 to 3,740,700. Unemployment increased 9,900 to 734,200. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 9,200 to 496,700 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 19,000 to 237,500. Unemployment rate increased by 0.1 pts to 5.8%. No change was expected. Participation rate increased by less than 0.1 pts to 64.9%.
There were no data releases from Australia on Friday, but from China GDP and Industrial Production figures were released. China's economy expanded 6.7% in the second quarter, the government reported Friday local time, matching Q1's year-over-year gain and just above views for a drop to 6.6%. The last two quarters show the weakest growth since the start of 2009, but they suggest that the gradual deceleration may be ending, easing concerns about global growth that could upset financial markets. Many economists also have doubts about the accuracy of Chinese data. Industrial production rose 6.2% vs. a year earlier. Economists had expected 5.9% after May's 6% gain.
This week markets will be looking at:
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Tuesday 3:30)