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Events that marked the week:

Monday brought UK Construction PMI figures. Meanwhile, softer demand conditions acted as a brake on staff recruitment in June and contributed to a drop in purchasing activity for the first time in just over three years. At 46.0 in June, down from 51.2 in May, the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the first time since April 2013. The latest reading pointed to the weakest overall performance for exactly seven years, but the rate of contraction was much slower than seen during the 2008/09 downturn.

Tuesday brought UK Services PMI figures. The Business Activity Index fell from 53.5 in May to 52.3 in June, matching April’s 38-month low and signalling a relatively weak rate of growth in UK services output. Activity has risen every month since January 2013, but the index averaged just 52.7 in the second quarter, the weakest of any quarter since Q1 2013. The index has averaged 55.2 since it was first compiled in July 1996.

 

However, the focus of the session was on BoE. The Bank of England took steps on Tuesday to ensure British banks keep lending as the financial consequences of the country's decision to leave the European Union began to materialize, especially in commercial real estate. The BoE, which is trying to cushion the economy from the June 23 referendum result, said it would lower the amount of capital banks must hold in reserve, freeing up an extra 150 billion pounds ($196 billion) for lending. Governor Mark Carney recalled the central bank's warnings in March that the referendum was the biggest near-term domestic risk to financial stability. "Some of those risks have begun to crystallize," he said.

 

From the UK, on Thursday, Industrial Production data was released. Total production output is estimated to have decreased by 0.5% in May 2016 compared with April 2016. Analysts were anticipating 1.2% decrease. There were decreases in 3 of the 4 main sectors, with the largest downward movement coming from manufacturing, which decreased by 0.5% and contributed -0.3 percentage points to total production. The largest contribution to the decrease in manufacturing came from the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products & pharmaceutical preparations, which decreased by 6.5%, having increased in the previous month by 9.0%.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Inflation Report Hearings (Tuesday)

Official Bank Rate/BoE Meeting Minutes (Thursday 14:30)

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