Focus of the Tuesday's session was on RBA interest rate decision and the following Statement. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its benchmark cash rate unchanged a month after it unveiled a 25 basis point cut, which took rates to their current record low of 1.75%. Australia's 'Big Four' banks and a Reuters poll of economists had anticipated no action on Tuesday after gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March period expanded 3.1% on-year. It was the fastest pace of acceleration in three years and placed the world's twelfth-largest economy on track to meet the RBA's growth forecast of 2.5 to 3.5% by year-end.
But that's not to say the RBA will be holding steady for long; persistently low inflation remains a worrisome factor that could lead to further rate cuts this year. In Tuesday's statement, the central bank said inflation was expected to remain low "for sometime" due to subdued growth in labor costs, a prediction shared by several economists.
There were no data releases from Australia on Wednesday, but from China Trade Balance figures were released. China's exports fell by 4.1% vs -4.0% expected, while imports were down by 0.4% vs 6.8% decline forecasted thus leaving trade balance surplus of $49.9B below predicted one of $58.0B. Yuan denominated trade balance showed 1.2% rise in exports and 5.1% incline in imports with trade surplus of 324B. Chinese importers are also one of the earliest stages in the global manufacturing cycle and they may be importing more because orders are rising due to better global growth.
Thursday brought China's CPI and PPI figures. China's consumer price inflation in May rose 2.0 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, below market expectations. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted the consumer price index (CPI) would rise 2.3 percent, the same pace as in April. Producer prices in May fell 2.8 percent from a year earlier, compared with market expectations for a drop of 3.3 percent and a decline of 3.4 percent in April. Deflationary pressures in China were a major concern for financial markets and the central bank for much of 2015, but the trend began showing signs of improving late last year.
This week markets will be looking at:
China's Industrial Production (Monday 4:00)
NAB Business Confidence (Tuesday 3:30)
Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Thursday 3:30)
Last modified on Friday, 10 June 2016