Events that marked the week:
From Eurozone, on Tueday, M3 Money Supply data was released. The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 5.0% in February 2016, in line with market expectations, unchanged from the previous period, averaging 4.9% in the three months up to February. The components of M3 showed the following developments. The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate including currency in circulation and overnight deposits (M1) decreased to 10.3% in February, from 10.5% in January.
On Wednesday German CPI data was published. The inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to be +0.3% in March 2016. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the consumer prices will increase by 0.8% on February 2016. The harmonised index of consumer prices for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to be up 0.1% in March 2016 year on year. Compared with February 2016, it is expected to rise by 0.8%. Analysts were anticipating increase by 0.6%.
Thursday's session was marked by German Retail Sales and Employment Change figures, as well as Spanish and Eurozone CPI data. Retail turnover in February 2016 in Germany increased in real terms and in nominal terms (also) 5.4% compared with the corresponding month of the previous year. The number of days open for sale was 25 in February 2016 and 24 in February 2015. When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations the February turnover was in real terms and in nominal terms 0.4% smaller than that in January 2016. Analysts were predicting increase by 0.3%.
The number of unemployed people in Germany was unchanged in March, while the unemployment rate held steady at an all-time low, official data showed on Thursday. In a report, Germany's Federal Statistics Office said the unemployment rate was unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 6.2% in March, in line with analyst expectations. The number of unemployed people was flat in March from a month earlier, disappointing forecasts for a drop of 7,000. Jobless claims fell by 9,000 in February, whose figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 10,000.
Separate report on Spanish CPI, Consumer price inflation in Spain rose less-than-expected last month, official data showed on Thursday. In a report, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica said that Spanish CPI rose to 0.6%, from -0.4% in the preceding month. Analysts had expected Spanish CPI to rise 0.7% last month.
Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.1% in March 2016, up from -0.2% in February, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. This was in line with market expectations. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, services is expected to have the highest annual rate in March (1.3%, compared with 0.9% in February), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (0.7%, compared with 0.6% in February), non-energy industrial goods (0.5% compared with 0.7% in February) and energy (-8.7%, compared with -8.1% in February).
Friday brought Spanish and Italian Manufacturing PMI data. Business conditions in the Spanish manufacturing sector continued to improve at the end of the first quarter of the year, although there were signs of a slowdown in growth during March. Rates of expansion in output and new orders both eased, but employment continued to rise solidly. A further sharp reduction in input costs was recorded, and output prices were decreased accordingly. The seasonally adjusted Markit Spain Purchasing Managers’ Index posted 53.4 in March, down from 54.1 in February but still signalling a solid improvement in the health of the sector.
Italy's manufacturing sector regained some momentum in March, with output, new orders and exports all increasing at faster rates. Employment at factories rose as a result, although the pace of job creation eased slightly amid falling backlogs of work. Elsewhere, producer prices dropped to the greatest extent for over a year and cost pressures remained on the downside. After having fallen to a 12-month low of 52.2 in February, the headline Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index recovered to 53.5 in March, its highest reading in 2016 so far.
This week markets will be looking at:
Spanish Unemployment Change (Monday 9:00)
Unemployment Rate (Monday 11:00)
Spanish Services PMI (Tuesday 9:15)
Italian Services PMI (Tuesday 9:45)