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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – 01 February – 05 February

Friday, Jan 29 2016

Events that marked the week:

From Australia, on Monday, NAB Business Confidence figures were released. Australia's December business conditions came in at 7 vs 10, while confidence stood at 3 vs 5, with NAB noting that business confidence remains resilient to financial market turmoil (for now), while business conditions suggest non-mining recovery remains on track. According to NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster: “While recent big declines in oil and equity markets highlight potential risks to the global outlook, relatively positive business conditions appear to have, so far, acted to reassure business sentiment”.

Wednesday's session was marked by Australian CPI data. The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures show the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in the December quarter 2015, following a rise of 0.5% in the September quarter 2015. Analysts were expecting 0.3% increase. The CPI rose 1.7% through the year to the December quarter 2015, following a rise of 1.5% through the year to the September quarter 2015. Trimmed Means CPI rose by 0.7%, also beating market forecasts.

 

On Thursday Australian Import and Export Prices data was released. The Import Price Index fell 0.3% in the December quarter 2015. Analysts were anticipating 0.8% decrease. Through the year to the December quarter 2015, the Import Price Index rose 2.4%. The Export Price Index fell 5.4% in the December quarter 2015. Through the year to the December quarter 2015, the Export Price Index fell 10.3%.

 

Friday was marked by Australian PPI data. Australian PPI rose 0.3% in the December quarter 2015. Analysts were anticipating 0.6% increase. Rise was mainly due to rises in the prices received for building construction (+0.5%), other transport equipment manufacturing (+3.0%) and sheep, beef cattle grain farming and dairy farming (+5.4%). It was partly offset by falls in the prices received for petroleum refining and petroleum fuel manufacturing (–12.1%). PPI rose 1.9% through the year to the December quarter 2015.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Monday 2:45)

Cash Rate/RBA Rate Statement (Tuesday 4:30)

Building Approvals (Wednesday 1:30)

Trade Balance (Wednesday 1:30)

Retail Sales (Friday 1:30)

RBA Monetary Policy Statement (Friday 1:30)

Last modified on Friday, 29 January 2016
More in this category: « EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – 25 January – 29 January GBP/USD Weekly Forecast – 01 February – 05 February »

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