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EUR/USD Weeky Forecast – 04 January – 08 January

Thursday, Dec 31 2015

Events that marked the week:

There were no data releases from Eurozone this week. Luxembourg Central Bank Governor Mersch talking to International Bankers Forum on Monday said that ECB has by no means run out of ammunition. It still has firepower and deposit rate theoretically are not at lower bound. He uttered that QE will run as long as necessary to reach their goal sustainably and that ECB can add on at anytime should this be necessary.

Unemployment for both the euro zone and the full 28-member European Union has hovered near double digits since 2012. This has prompted the central banker to prod member states into action to help drag the continent out of its prolonged economic slump. "Given continued high structural unemployment and low potential output growth in the euro area, the ongoing cyclical recovery should be supported by effective structural policies," Draghi urged in his December statement.

 

From Eurozone, on Wednesday, Spanish CPI and M3 Money Supply data was published. According to the flash estimate of the CPI, consumer prices registers a -0.3% variation in December, as compared to the month of November. According to the flash estimate published by the INE, the annual inflation of the CPI in December 2015 is 0.0%. Analysts were predicting increase to 0.1%. This indicator provides a preview of the CPI that, if confirmed, would imply an increase of three tenths in its annual rate, given that in November this change was ‒0.3%.

 

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 decreased to 5.1% in November 2015, from 5.3% in October, averaging 5.1% in the three months up to November. Smaller decrease to 5.2% was anticipated. The components of M3 showed the following developments. The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate including currency in circulation and overnight deposits (M1) decreased to 11.2% in November, from 11.8% in October. 

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

German Prelim CPI (Monday)

Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Monday 9:15)

Italian Manufacturing PMI (Monday 9:45)

Spanish Unemployment Change (Tuesday 8:00)

German Unemployment Change (Tuesday 9:55)

CPI Flash Estimate (Tuesday 11:00)

Spanish Services PMI (Wednesday 9:15)

Italian Services PMI (Wednesday 9:45)

German Factory Orders (Thursday 8:00)

Unemployment Rate (Thursday 11:00)

More in this category: « GBP/USD Weeky Forecast – 04 January – 08 January AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – 11 January – 15 January »

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