Thursday brought German Consumer Climate and Unemployment Change figures as well as M3 Money Supply data. Following a value of 9.3 points in February 2015, German Consumer Climate indicator is forecasting 9.7 points for March. This is mostly in line with market forecasts. This is its highest value since October 2001, when the indicator was at 11.0 points. The consumer climate therefore remains on the upswing in Germany.
The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.1% in January 2015, from 3.8% in December 2014,beating market expectations on 3.7% increase. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from November 2014 to January 2015 increased to 3.6%, from 3.1% in the period from October 2014 to December 2014.
Separate report, on German Unemployment Change showed that the number of people out of work declined a seasonally adjusted 20,000 to 2.81 million. Economists predicted a drop of 10,000. The adjusted jobless rate remained at 6.5%, the lowest level in records going back more than two decades.
Friday's session was marked by Spanish CPI, French Consumer Spending and German CPI figures. The estimated Spanish CPI in February 2015 fell by 1.1%, according to the flash estimate issued by the INE. Analysts were anticipating bigger decline by 1.5%. This indicator provides a preview of IPC which, if confirmed, would imply an increase of two tenths in the annual rate, compared with January when CPI fell by 1.3%. This increase is mainly explained by the higher prices of fuels (diesel and gasoline).
Separate report on French Consumer Spending showed 0.6% increase,beating market forecasts on 0.3% decrease. This rise resulted mainly from brisk purchases of cars and spending on gas and electricity. However, heating and fuel consumption declined markedly.
The inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to rise 0.1% in February 2015 on a year earlier. Based on the results available so far, consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.9% on January 2015, above market forecasts on 0.6% incline.
This week markets will be looking at:
Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Monday 9:15)
Italian Manufacturing PMI (Monday 9:45)
CPI Flash Estimate (Monday 11:00)
Unemployment Rate (Monday 11:00)
German Retail Sales (Tuesday 8:00)
Spanish Unemployment Change (Tuesday 9:00)
Spanish Services PMI (Wednesday 9:15)
Italian Services PMI (Wednesday 9:45)
Retail Sales (Wednesday 11:00)
Minimum Bid Rate/ECB Press Conference (Thursday 14:30)