AUD/USD Daily Forecast

Thursday, Feb 15 2018

From Australia, yesterday, Westpac Consumer Sentiment data was published. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 2.3% to 102.7 in February from 105.1 in January. The survey was conducted over the week of February 5 - February 11. That week was marked by a wave of volatility in global share markets. The Australian market, which was more stable than most, still experienced some significant swings, being down a net 4.6% for the week while the US market (S&P 500) was down by a net 7.2%. Extensive media coverage of these developments would have unnerved respondents on two fronts – the impact on their own financial position and concerns for general global stability.

In the US session CPI and Retail Sales figures were published. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based, with increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, apparel, medical care, and food all contributing. The energy index rose 3.0 percent in January, with the increase in the gasoline index more than offsetting declines in other energy component indexes.

U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined in January and December receipts were revised lower, indicating consumer demand in the first quarter may cool, according to Commerce Department figures released Wednesday. Overall sales fell 0.3% (est. 0.2% gain), the most since February 2017, after little change in prior month (prev. 0.4% increase). Purchases at automobile dealers dropped 1.3%, the most since August. So-called retail-control group sales, which are used to calculate GDP and exclude food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, unchanged following a revised 0.2% decrease in December (prev. 0.3% gain). 7 of 13 major retail categories showed declines in receipts.

Tomorrow's session will bring Australian job data. Unemployment Rate should remain unchanged at 5.5%, with employment increasing by 15,300. In the US PPI, Unemployment Claims, Industrial Production, Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index figures will be published. PPI is expected to increase by 0.4%, Industrial Production should rose by 0.2%, while Unemployment Claims should incline to 229,000. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is anticipated to fell to 21.5 and Empire State to remain unchanged.

Figures to watch:

Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Thursday 1:30)

PPI (Thursday 14:30)

Empire State Manufacturing Index (Thursday 14:30)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thursday 14:30)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

Industrial Production (Thursday 15:15)

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