AUD/USD Daily Forecast

Monday, Feb 05 2018

From Australia, yesterday, ANZ job advertisements figures were released. The number of job advertisements in Australia spiked sharply in January, suggesting that the strength in hiring seen in 2017 will continue in the months ahead. According to ANZ Bank, total advertisements surged by 6.2% to 177,961 last month in seasonally adjusted terms, the largest percentage increase since February 2010. While a stellar result, the sharp increase followed a 2.7% decline in December. So part of January’s surge reflects prior weakness in advertisements seen a month earlier. Still, reflecting just how much labour market conditions have improved this year, January’s figure was up an impressive 13.8% from January 2017.

In the US session ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data was published. The NMI® registered 59.9 percent, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 56 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.8 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 57.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 102nd consecutive month, at a faster rate in January. The New Orders Index registered 62.7 percent, 8.2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted reading of 54.5 percent in December.

Tomorrow's session will bring Australian Retail Sales and Trade Balance figures as well as RBA rate decision. Analysts predict 0.2% decrease in Retail Sales and increase in Trade Balance to surplus of 0.25 billion dollars. RBA is not expected to change its rates. There will be no major data releases in the US part of the session.

Figures to watch:

Retail Sales (Tuesday 1:30)

Trade Balance (Tuesday 1:30)

Cash Rate/RBA Statement (Tuesday 4:30)

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