AUD/USD Daily Forecast

Thursday, Dec 14 2017

From Australia, yesterday, Westpac Consumer Sentiment figures were released. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 3.6% to 103.3 in December from 99.7 in November. This is a surprisingly strong result and confirms the lift we have seen in the Index over the last three months. The average reading for the Index in the December quarter is 5% above the average for the September quarter when we saw a disturbing slump in consumer spending. This result is supportive of the view that consumer confidence may have bottomed out during that September quarter.

In the US session CPI data was published. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent. The energy index rose 3.9 percent and accounted for about three-fourths of the all items increase. The gasoline index increased 7.3 percent, and the other energy component indexes also rose. The food index was unchanged in November, with the index for food at home declining slightly.

However, the focus of the session was on Fed's interest rate decision and the following press conference. The Federal Reserve had been expected to raise its benchmark interest rate a quarter point to a target range of 1.25 percent to 1.5 percent. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee raised its GDP estimate from 2.1 percent in September to 2.5 percent. The inflation forecast for 2018 also got a modest boost, from 1.6 percent to 1.7 percent. The statement noted that the jobs market "will remain strong," an upgrade from the assessment at the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting that conditions "will strengthen somewhat further."

On top of the more buoyant outlook for overall growth, Fed officials cut their estimates for the unemployment rate, to 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, two-tenths below the previous numbers. The 2020 rate is expected to be 4 percent, down from 4.2 percent, while the longer-run outlook remained at 4.6 percent. The current unemployment rate is 4.1 percent. The statement noted that the jobs market "will remain strong," an upgrade from the assessment at the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting that conditions "will strengthen somewhat further." Later, the committee said the current stance of monetary policy is "supporting strong labor market conditions," a contrast to the language from the previous meeting that indicated "some further strengthening."

Tomorrow's session will bring Australian job figures. Analysts predict no change in Unemployment Rate, while number of employed should increase by 18,100. In the US session Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims data will be published. Retail Sales are expected to increase by 0.3%, while no change is anticipated in Unemployment Claims.

Figures to watch:

Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Thursday 1:30)

Retail Sales (Thursday 14:30)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

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