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Yesterday's session was marked by UK CPI and PPI data. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.8% in November 2017, unchanged from October 2017. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 3.1% in November 2017, up from 3.0% in October 2017; it was last higher in March 2012. The largest upward contribution to change in both the CPIH and CPI rates came from air fares which fell between October and November but by less than a year ago. Rising prices for a range of recreational and cultural goods and services, most notably computer games, also had an upward effect. Falling prices in the miscellaneous goods and services category (covering products such as travel goods and financial services) provided the largest offsetting downward contribution.

The headline rate of inflation for goods leaving the factory gate (output prices) rose 3.0% on the year to November 2017, up from 2.8% in October 2017. Prices for materials and fuels (input prices) rose 7.3% on the year to November 2017, up from 4.8% in October 2017. All industries provided upward contributions to both input and output annual inflation; the largest contributors to the change in the annual rates were crude oil and petroleum products respectively. Core input inflation was 4.6% on the year to November 2017, up from 3.4% in October 2017.

 

In the US session PPI data was released. The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices also moved up 0.4 percent in both October and September. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 3.1 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since a 3.1-percent increase for the 12 months ended January 2012.In November, three-fourths of the rise in the final demand index is attributable to a 1.0-percent increase in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services climbed 0.2 percent.

 

From the UK, tomorrow, UK job figures will be released. In the US session CPI figures will be published. Number of unemployed should increase by 400, while Unemployment Rate should remain unchanged at 4.3%. Analysts predict 0.4% increase. However, the focus of the session will be on FOMC interest rate decision and the following press conference, where interest rate hike is anticipated.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Claimant Count Change/Unemployment Rate (Wednesday 10:30)

CPI (Wednesday 14:30)

Federal Funds Rate/FOMC Economic Projections/FOMC Press Conference (Wednesday 20:00)

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