GBP/USD Daily Forecast

Tuesday, Nov 21 2017

There were no data releases from the UK yesterday. Chancellor Philip Hammond will this week deliver his first ever Autumn Budget against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, continued uncertainty about the form Brexit will take, and a government that is so fragile it could collapse any minute. Hammond, who is by nature a conservative chancellor, would almost certainly not have announced any fireworks or some sort of spending bonanza even during strong and stable times, but these three prongs make anything exciting even less likely. Hammond is also likely to be hamstrung by new forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent body, which holds the government to account on matters of spending.

Late in October the highly respected Institute for Fiscal Studies argued that the UK's budget deficit could be as much as £20 billion higher than forecast by 2020/21 when the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) — the government's budget watchdog — downgrades productivity forecasts. The OBR said at the start of October that it will have to "significantly" lower its estimates for UK productivity, writing down past estimates of productivity. The budget deficit is the annual sum the government borrows to meet any shortfall between incoming tax receipts and its spending. In March this year, the OBR forecast that the UK deficit would be cut to £17 billion by 2020/21.

Tomorrow's session will bring Public Sector Net Borrowing data. Increase to £6.6 billion is anticipated. In the US session Existing Home Sales figures will be published. Analysts predict annual rate of 5.42 million.

Figures to watch:

Public Sector Net Borrowing (Tuesday 10:30)

Existing Home Sales (Tuesday 16:00)

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