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Yesterday's session brought UK Construction PMI figures. UK construction companies signalled that business conditions remained subdued during October. Caution in terms of the outlook for construction workloads meant that employment numbers increased at one of the slowest rates seen over the past four years. At 50.8 in October, up from 48.1 in September, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index moved back above the 50.0 no-change mark. However, the latest reading was weaker than the post-crisis trend (54.7) and signalled only a marginal rise in overall construction output.

 

However, the focus of the session was on BoE's interest rate decision. Alongside Governor Mark Carney, the majority of rate-setters at the U.K.'s central bank voted in favor of hiking the benchmark rate to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent. The Bank of England's decision to rate hikes Thursday sees the central bank fall in line with the U.S. Federal Reserve and to some extent the European Central Bank. The central bank expects the inflation rate to have peaked at 3.2 percent in October — and will be at 3 percent for the year as a whole. Speaking at a news conference shortly after the interest rate announcement, Carney said: "It isn't so much where inflation is now but where it is going that concerns us."

 

Carney stressed that rates would "gently" rise as inflation eases in the foreseeable future. The central bank expects the inflation rate to have peaked at 3.2 percent in October — and will be at 3 percent for the year as a whole. The bank had previously said that inflation would be 2.8 percent for 2017. The Bank said its nine rate-setters voted 7-2 to increase its benchmark rate. As expected, the two Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members voting to keep borrowing costs unchanged were Jon Cunliffe and Dave Ramsden. However, most rate-setters decided it was the "appropriate" time to tighten monetary policy.

 

In the US session Unemployment Claims data was published. In the week ending October 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 232,500, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 7, 1973 when it was 232,250. Claims taking procedures continue to be severely disrupted in the Virgin Islands. The ability to take claims has improved in Puerto Rico and they are now processing backlogged claims.

 

Tomorrow, from the UK, Services PMI figures will be published. Incline to 50.8 is anticipated. In the US session NFP report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be released. Number of employed should increase by 311,000, while Unemployment Rate should remain unchanged at 6.2%. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 58.5.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Construction PMI (Friday 10:30)

Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Friday 16:00)

Last modified on Thursday, 02 November 2017

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