AUD/USD Daily Forecast

Wednesday, Nov 01 2017

There were no data releases from Australia yesterday, but from China Manufacturing PMI figures were released. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI was 51.0 in October, unchanged from September and remaining in expansionary territory. The sub-index for output fell for the third straight month in October and was weaker than the average seen over the first 10 months of the year, even though growth in new orders picked up. The sub-indices for input costs and output prices both moderated from the previous month but remained at rather high levels. Stocks of finished goods and stocks of purchases lingered in contraction territory, although their paces of decline eased moderately from September.

In the US session ADP employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures were released. Private sector employment increased by 235,000 jobs from September to October according to the October ADP National Employment Report. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market rebounded strongly from the hit it took from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Resurgence in construction jobs shows the rebuilding is already in full swing. Looking through the hurricane-created volatility, job growth is robust.”

The October PMI registered 58.7 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the September reading of 60.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 63.4 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the September reading of 64.6 percent. The Production Index registered 61 percent, a 1.2 percentage point decrease compared to the September reading of 62.2 percent. The Employment Index registered 59.8 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the September reading of 60.3 percent.

However, focus of the session was on FOMC interest rate decision and the following statement. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and pointed to solid U.S. economic growth and a strengthening labor market while playing down the impact of recent hurricanes, a sign it is on track to lift borrowing costs again in December. "The labor market has continued to strengthen and ... economic activity has been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions," the Fed's rate-setting committee said in a statement after its unanimous policy decision. In keeping with that encouraging tone, the central bank's policymakers acknowledged that inflation remained soft but did not downgrade their assessment of pricing expectations.

Tomorrow's session will bring Trade Balance and Building Approvals figures. Analysts anticipate incline to $1.42 billion in trade balance surplus, while Building Approvals should fell by 0.9%. In the US session Unemployment Claims data will be published. Increase to 235,000 is forecasted.

Figures to watch:

Trade Balance (Thursday 1:30)

Building Approvals (Thursday 1:30)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 13:30)

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