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GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 25 October

Tuesday, Oct 24 2017
GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 25 October

There were no data releases from the UK yesterday. The Bank of England is seriously considering raising rates for the first time in 10 years against a backdrop of lacklustre economic growth, as a Guardian analysis shows the Brexit vote sapping business confidence and hitting household income. As Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, prepares to hike the cost of borrowing for the first time since 2007 from as soon as next week, key barometers of economic strength are faltering. Nevertheless, City analysts expect Carney and his panel of rate setters on the monetary policy committee to vote for a rate hike on 2 November.

Threadneedle Street is thought to have backed itself into a corner – with financial markets reckoning there is an 80% chance of a hike – after the MPC said at its last meeting in September it could move to increase rates within the “coming months”. Stepping back from the brink may now cause the pound to fall and would undermine the central bank’s credibility, having been called an “unreliable boyfriend” once before for failing to act on its hints.

 

Tomorrow's session will bring UK GDP figures. Analysts predict 0.3% growth. In the US session Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales data will be published. Durable Goods Orders are expected to raise by 1.0%, while New Home Sales should show annual rate of 555,000.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Prelim GDP (Wednesday 10:30)

Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday 14:30)

New Home Sales (Wednesday 16:00)

More in this category: « AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 25 October EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 25 October »

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