EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 01 September

Thursday, Aug 31 2017

Yesterday's session was marked by Eurozone CPI data. Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.5% in August 2017, up from 1.3% in July 2017, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in August (4.0%, compared with 2.2% in July), followed by services (1.6%, stable compared with July), food, alcohol & tobacco (1.4%, stable compared with July) and non-energy industrial goods (0.5%, stable compared with July).

In the US session Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales and Chicago PMI figures were published. In the week ending August 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 234,000 to 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending August 19, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate.

The Pending Home Sales Index a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 0.8 percent to 109.1 in July from a downwardly revised 110.0 in June. After last month’s decline, the index is now 1.3 percent below a year ago and has fallen on an annual basis in three of the past four months. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the staggering inventory woes throughout the country continue to stall contract activity.

Separate report on Chicago PMI showed that the MNI Chicago Business Barometer remained stable at July’s level of 58.9, the joint-lowest level since April. While marking the eighteenth consecutive above-50 reading, this month’s unchanged result follows July’s sharp decline that snapped a run of five straight monthly increases in sentiment. Apart from Employment, all other components of the Barometer were above their respective levels seen last August with all of them were above their January levels, pointing to robust confidence among US firms.

From Eurozone, tomorrow, Spanish Manufacturing PMI figures will be released. Analysts predict increase to 54.4. In the US session NFP report and ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be published. Unemployment Rate should remain unchanged at 4.3%, while number of employed should increase by 180,000. ISM Manufacturing PMI should rise to 56.5.

Figures to watch:

Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Friday 9:15)

Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Friday 16:00)

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