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AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 09 August

Tuesday, Aug 08 2017
AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 09 August

Yesterday's session brought NAB Business Confidence and China's Trade Balance figures. The recent strength in business conditions was maintained going into the start of the third quarter. The business conditions index rose 1 point, to +15 index points, which is three times the long-run average (+5). Similarly, the business confidence index rose 4 points in July, to +12 index points. Confidence has been fairly volatile, and while not as lofty as business conditions, the index is still double its long-run average.

China customs administration announced trade data in yuan terms in statement today. July exports climbed 11.2% y/y; median est. 14.8% rise y/y (range +12.1% to +16.5%, 10 economists). July imports climbed 14.7% y/y; median est. 22.6% rise (range +16.0% to +26.9%, 10 economists). July trade surplus 321.2b yuan; median est. 293.6b yuan surplus (range 250b-348.3b yuan surplus, 10 economists). Export growth is now the slowest since February (lower than the lowest estimate) and Import growth is now the weakest since Dec 2016 (lower than the lowest estimate).

 

There will be no major data releases from Australia tomorrow, while from China CPI and PPI figures will be published. Analysts anticipate increase by 1.5% in CPI and by 5.6% in PPI. There will be no major data releases from USA.

 

Figures to watch:

 

China's CPI/PP (Wednesday 3:30)

More in this category: « EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 07 August GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 09 August »

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