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Yesterday, from the UK, Services PMI figures were released. The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI® Business Activity Index picked up to 53.8 in July, from 53.4 in June, to remain above the 50.0 no-change value for the twelfth month running. However, the latest reading signalled a slower rate of business activity growth than the post-crisis trend. Survey respondents noted that heightened economic uncertainty and fragile confidence among clients were key factors acting as a brake on growth.

However, the focus of the session was on BoE's interest rate decision and inflation report. The Bank of England voted 6-2 to keep rates steady.  Haldane, who previously had indicated that it was a close call from him at the last meeting, stuck with the majority.  The Bank of England returns to full staff at the September meeting.   The BOE trimmed its growth forecasts but not its inflation forecast.  This year's growth forecast was pared to 1.75% from 1.9%, and 2018 growth was shaved to 1.6% from 1.7%.  It is important to note that the composition of growth is seen changing. 

 

More growth is expected to come from exports and less from consumption, and wage growth is now expected to be slower than it anticipated in May.  It appears that the market is pushing back the first hike from August next year until November.  The BOE expects inflation to peak in October at 3%.  Carney specifically singled out the past decline in sterling as the "sole cause" of the higher CPI.

 

In the US session Unemployment Claims and Non-Manufacturing PMI data was released.  In the week ending July 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 240,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 244,000 to 245,000. The 4-week moving average was 241,750, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 244,000 to 244,250.

 

The NMI® registered 53.9 percent. This represents continued growth inthe non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 55.9 percent, 4.9 percentage points lower than the June reading of 60.8 percent, reecting growth for the 96th consecutive month, at a slower rate in July. The New Orders Index registered 55.1 percent, 5.4 percentage points lower than the reading of 60.5 percent in June.

 

There will be no major data releases from the UK tomorrow. Focus of the US session will be on NFP report. Analysts predict number of employed to increase by 181,000, with unemployment rate falling to 4.3%.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)

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