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GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 03 July

Friday, Jun 30 2017
GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 03 July

From the UK, on Friday, Current Account and GDP figures were released. The UK’s current account deficit was £16.9 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017, a widening of £4.8 billion from a deficit of £12.1 billion in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016, due predominantly to a widening in the deficit on trade; the current account deficit in Quarter 1 2017 equated to 3.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices, up from 2.4% in Quarter 4 2016. The total trade deficit widened to £8.8 billion in Quarter 1 2017 following a sharp narrowing of the deficit in Quarter 4 2016 (£4.8 billion); this was due to a widening in the deficit on trade in goods and a narrowing in the surplus on trade in services.

Separate report showed that gross domestic product (GDP) and its components are little changed from the previous estimates published on 25 May 2017. UK GDP in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.2% between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017, unrevised from the previous estimate published on 25 May 2017; growth was driven by output from the business services and finance, and construction industries, partially offset by declines in some consumer-focused industries. UK GDP growth in volume terms increased by 2.0% between Quarter 1 2016 and Quarter 1 2017, unrevised from the previous estimate.

 

In the US session Chicago PMI data was released.  The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose to 65.7 in June from 59.4 in May, the highest level in over three years. Optimism among firms about business conditions rose for the fifth consecutive month. Four of the five Barometer components led June’s increase, with only Employment falling, albeit slightly. Successive rises in the barometer left the Q2 calendar quarter average at 61.1, significantly above Q1’s 55.1, and the highest level since Q2 2014.

 

Monday will bring UK Manufacturing PMI figures. Analysts predict decline to 56.4. In the US session, also ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be published. No change is expected.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Manufacturing PMI (Monday 10:30)

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Monday 16:00)

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