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EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 04 March

Thursday, Mar 03 2016

From Eurozone, yesterday, Spanish and Italian Services PMI data was published. The Spanish service sector continued to record growth of activity, new orders and employment during February, but there were signs that the political uncertainty following December’s general election had subdued demand, leading to weaker rates of expansion. The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index posted 54.1 in February, down from 54.6 in January but still signalling a solid expansion of activity during the month. 

February’s headline Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index – which is based on a single question asking respondents to report on the actual change in business activity at their companies compared to one month ago – read 53.8 to signal a solid rate of growth that was slightly faster than in January (53.6). It was the twelfth month in a row that the index has registered above the 50.0 no-change threshold. 

 

In the US session, Unemployment Claims and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures were released. In the week ending February 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 278,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 272,000. The 4-week moving average was 270,250, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 272,000. Analysts were expecting decrease to 271,000.

 

The Non-Manufacturing PMI Index registered 53.4 percent in February, 0.1 percentage point lower than the January reading of 53.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly slower rate. According to the NMI, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in February. The majority of the respondents' comments continue to be positive about business conditions. The respondents are projecting a slight optimism in regards to the overall economy.

 

There will be no major data releases from Eurozone tomorrow. In the US session NFP and Trade Balance figures will be released. Analysts predict incline to 195,000 in NFP, while Unemployment Rate should remain unchanged at 4.9%. Trade Balance deficit should widen to $43.8 billion.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate/Average Hourly Earnings (Friday 14:30)

Trade Balance (Friday 14:30)

More in this category: « GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 04 March AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 07 March »

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