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AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 01 March

Monday, Feb 29 2016

From Australia, yesterday, Company Operating Profits data was published. The seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits fell 2.8% in the December quarter 2015. Analysts were expecting 1.7% decrease. The seasonally adjusted estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.5% in the December quarter 2015. The trend estimate for inventories fell 0.1% in the December quarter 2015. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.4% this quarter. The trend estimate for Manufacturing sales of goods and service fell 1.1% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 2.0% this quarter. 

In the US session Pending Home Sales and Chicago PMI figures were released. The Pending Home Sales Index, declined 2.5% to 106.0 in January from an upwardly revised 108.7 in December but is still 1.4% above January 2015 (104.5). Analysts were predicting increase by 0.6%. Although the index has increased year-over-year for 17 consecutive months, last month’s annual gain was the second smallest (September 2014 at 1.2 percent) during the timeframe.

 

The Chicago Business Barometer recoiled 8.0 points to 47.6 in February following a sharp increase to 55.6 in the previous month, led by significant declines in Production and New Orders. Four of the five Barometer components declined between January and February, with only Supplier Deliveries posting an increase on the month. While the latest fall left the Barometer running a little below the 12-month average of 50.1, following significant weakness in Q4 2015, activity looks set to rebound in Q1.

 

Tomorrow's session will be marked by Australian Building Approvals and Current Account figures, China's Manufacturing PMI data, as well as RBA rate decision. Analysts are forecasting 2.9% decrease in Building Approvals and increase in Current Account deficit to $19.8 billion. On the other hand, both China's official and Caixin Manufacturing PMI figures are not expected to show any change. Additional volatility will come from RBA rate decision. Though rate should remain unchanged, following statement would add some volatility to the markets. In the US session ISM Manufacturing PMI figures will be released. Analysts predict incline to 48.5.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Building Approvals (Tuesday 1:30)

Current Account (Tuesday 1:30)

China's Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday 2:00)

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday 2:45)

Cash Rate/RBA Rate Statement (Tuesday 4:30)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday 16:00)

More in this category: « EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 29 February GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 01 March »

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