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EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 12 February

Thursday, Feb 11 2016

There were no data releases from Eurozone on Thursday. Jens Weidmann from the ECB said that there is no doubt that the current monetary policy situation is not an easy one, with downside risks to inflation in the euro area having increased recently. This concern is also evident in the introductory statement of the ECB Governing Council last week. There is no doubt that uncertainty is currently running high.

Given the recent financial market turbulence in China, the continued drop in oil and commodity prices and the heightened geopolitical risks, doubts are being raised in some quarters as to whether the international environment is still providing the stimuli for euro-area growth that were incorporated into the December Euro system staff projection, with economic growth for 2016 and 2017 expected to be 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively.

 

In the US session Unemployment Claims figures were released.  In the week ending February 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 269,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 285,000. Analysts were anticipating increase to 287,000. The 4-week moving average was 281,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 284,750. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

 

Tomorrow's session will bring German and Eurozone GDP data. German GDP is expected to incline by 0.3%, while Eurozone GDP should also grow by 0.3%. In the US session Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment figures are scheduled for a release. Analysts are forecasting 0.1% increase in Retail Sales, while Consumer Sentiment should rise to 92.6.

 

Figures to watch:

 

German Prelim GDP (Friday 8:00)

Flash GDP (Friday 11:00)

Retail Sales (Friday 14:30)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)

More in this category: « GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 12 February AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 15 February »

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