AUD/USD Daily Forecast

Wednesday, Feb 03 2016

From Australia, yesterday, Trade Balance and Building Approvals data was published. In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,313m in December 2015, an increase of $168m (5%) on the deficit in November 2015. In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,535m in December 2015, an increase of $808m (30%) on the deficit in November 2015. Analysts were anticipating deficit of $2,450m. Goods and services credits fell $1,243m (5%) to $25,247m, while goods and services debits fell $434m (1%) to $28,782m.

The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 0.1% in December and has fallen for eight months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 9.2% in December following a fall of 12.4% in the previous month. This was above expectations on 4.8% increase. The trend estimate for private sector houses approved rose 0.1% in December and has risen for three months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses rose 5.4% in December after falling for three months.

In the US session ADP job figures and Non-Manufacturing PMI data was released. Private sector employment increased by 205,000 jobs from December to January according to the January ADP National Employment Report. Analysts were forecasting increase by 193,000. "One of the main reasons for lower overall employment gains in January was the drop off in jobs added at the largest companies compared to December. These businesses are more sensitive to current economic conditions than small and mid-sized companies,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “Over the past year, businesses with less than 500 employees have created nearly 80 percent of new jobs.”

The NMI registered 53.5 percent in January, 2.3 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 55.8 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. According to the NMI, 10 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in January. The majority of the respondents’ comments are positive about business conditions; however, there is a concern that exists relative to global conditions, stock market volatility, and the effect on commercial and consumer confidence.

From Australia, tomorrow, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence data will be published. Analysts are hoping for a better reading this month. In the US session Unemployment Claims figures are scheduled for a release. No significant change is expected.

Figures to watch:

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence (Thursday 1:30)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

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