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EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 12 January

Monday, Jan 11 2016

Yesterday's session brought Sentix Investor Confidence from Eurozone. The sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone significantly fell in January 2016. The headline index slide 6.1 points down to +9.6 points. Analysts were predicting reading of +11.5. The Eurozone is not immune against the drift towards weaker global growth. Expectations dropped to +6.3 points from previously +18.0 points. The shakeup at Chinese stock exchanges is perceived more than a “technical issue” by investors. Economic expectations for Asia ex. Japan show the strongest nosedive ever recorded. Yet, economic expectations for the US economy are negative, the first time since October 2012. Latin America is still battles with recession.

The ECB is only partway to completing it expanded asset purchase program (APP) implementation, having completed approximately €592 billion of purchases (€89.1 billion under the CBPP3, €11.7 billion under ABSPP, and €491.2 b billion under the PSPP) or just about 39.5% of the €1.5 trillion expansion. At a clip of €60 billion per month, the ECB still has some €900 billion in asset purchases to go. Thus, when framing the Euro’s recent appeal in context of this longstanding thematic influence, the Euro seems to benefit in the short-term should this fearful environment persist, but should things calm down, it may lose appeal quickly otherwise.

 

There will be no major data releases from Eurozone tomorrow, so we can expect a bit steadier European part of the session. In the US session JOLTS Job Openings figures are scheduled for a release. Analysts are forecasting increase to 5.41 million.

 

Figures to watch:

 

JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday 16:00)

More in this category: « GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 12 January AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 13 January »

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