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GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 04 January

Thursday, Dec 31 2015

From the UK, on Thursday, only quarterly Housing Equity Withdrawals data was released. Report showed decrease to minus 8.8 billion pounds, while analysts were anticipating figure of minus 10.5 billion pounds.With growth slowing and the potential for a referendum on Britain’s future in the European Union as soon as June, options traders are the most bearish on the pound in more than six months.

In the US session Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI figures were released.In the week ending December 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 287,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 267,000. Analysts were anticipating increase to 274,000. The 4-week moving average was 277,000, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 272,500. 

 

The Chicago Business Barometer contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009, falling 5.8 points to 42.9 in December from 48.7 in November. Analysts were predicting increase to 50.5. It has been a volatile year for the Barometer.New Orders and Production have experienced particularly large swings with businesses never recovering fully from a sharp plunge at the beginning of the year. The Barometer’s December print is 16.5 points beneath the January high of 59.4. The quarterly average declined to 49.3 in Q4, the same as in Q2 which was the weakest quarter since Q3 2009.

 

On Monday, from the UK Manuafcturing PMI data will be published. Analysts are hoping for a recovery this month. In the US session ISM Manufacturing PMI figures are scheduled for a release.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Manufacturing PMI (Monday 10:30)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday 16:00)

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