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AUD/USD Daily Forecast – 04 December

Thursday, Dec 03 2015

Yesterday's session brought Australian Trade Balance data. In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,684m in October 2015, a decrease of $106m (4%) on the deficit in September 2015. In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,305m in October 2015, an increase of $902m (38%) on the deficit in September 2015. Smaller increase to $2,600m was expected. In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $829m (3%) to $26,594m, while goods and services debits rose $74m to $29,900m. 

In the US session Unemployment Claims and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures were released. In the week ending November 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 269,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 260,000. This was in line with market expectations. The 4-week moving average was 269,250, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 271,000. 

 

The Non-Manufacturing PMI registered 55.9 percent in November, 3.2 percentage points lower than the October reading of 59.1 percent. Analysts were anticipating decline to 58.1. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. According to the NMI, 12 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in November. After a strong month of growth in October, the non-manufacturing sector’s rate of growth slowed in November. Most respondents are still positive about business conditions.

 

Tomorrow's session will bring Australian Retail Sales data. 0.4% incline is anticipated. Focus of the US session will be on NFP and Trade Balance figures. Analysts are forecasting increase by 201,000 in number of employed, while Unemployment Rate should remain unchanged at 5.0%. Trade Balance deficit should slightly narrow to $40.6 billion.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Retail Sales (Friday 1:30)

Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)

Trade Balance (Friday 14:30)

More in this category: « EUR/USD Daily Forecast – 03 December GBP/USD Daily Forecast – 04 December »

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