The alternate scenario of course is that we break down below the 1.15 handle, which would be very negative. I see a lot of demand underneath there though, so it would make sense for the downside to be somewhat limited. With the trade wars going on, the US dollar has taken it on the chin occasionally, so perhaps something like that could send this pair higher. Perhaps we could get some type of resolution to the Brexit, which would also send this pair higher as it eliminates a certain amount of uncertainty.
Keep in mind that the pair is somewhat risk sensitive, so if stock markets go higher that could push this market higher as well. I’m waiting to see if we can close below the 1.15 level before I consider shorting, so this point it is a “buy the dips” type of market from what I see. That doesn’t mean we are going anywhere soon, as the August month tends to be very quiet.
