Bottom line: Look for initial resistance up towards 7636- a breach there would be needed to suggest that a larger reversal is underway / a more significant low is in place. A weekly close below 7480 would mark resumption for the broader downtrend with such a scenario targeting 7327. As noted in today’s webinar, for now, I’m willing to trade the long-side targeting slope resistance.
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast - 21 May - 25 May
Notes: Last week we noted that the Australian Dollar was, “testing BIG weekly support and IF price is going to rebound, this would be a good spot.” Price was unable to close below confluence support at 7480 with Aussie mounting a counter-offensive against the US Dollar early in the week. Note that the momentum profile looks similar to that of the late-2017 rebound and further highlights the risk for topside gains near-term - but stay nimble; the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside while within this descending pitchfork formation.
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