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GBP/USD Weekly Forecast - 28 March – 01 April

Friday, Mar 25 2016

After it initially failed to break above 1.45 handle, Sterling was pushed much lower in the course of the last week, all the way to 1.4050 handle, where it found some amount of support, and managed to rebound slightly after better than forecasted Retail Sales figures. Decline is mostly caused by Brexit concerns and weaker than expected CPI data. We can expect less volatility next week, with no major data releases from the UK, but we would pay attention to US NFP figures. Weaker than expected figures would push pair to 1.4250 and 1.43 handle in extension. On the other hand, better than forecasted figures would cause a break below 1.4050 handle, though we can expect significant amount of support all the way to 1.40 handle.

In long-term trends, with this pullback we have no interest in buying this pair, though we recognize that there is significant amount of support at 1.40 handle. However, for any buying bids we would first like to see break above 1.43 handle which would then lead pair all the way to 1.45 handle. Selling is nota n option as long as we are above 1.40 handle. At the moment we would remain on the sidelines.

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