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Events that marked the week:

On Wednesday ISM Manufacturing PMI figures were published. The December PMI registered 59.7 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the November reading of 58.2 percent. Comments from the panel reflect expanding business conditions, with new orders and production leading gains; employment expanding at a slower rate; order backlogs expanding at a faster rate; and export orders and imports continuing to grow in December. Supplier deliveries continued to slow (improving) at a faster rate, and inventories continued to contract at a slower rate during the period. Price increases continued at a faster rate. The Customers’ Inventories Index declined and remains at low levels.

However, the focus of the session was on FOMC Meeting Minutes. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers showed worry over the fate of currently low inflation and saw recent tax changes as providing a boost to consumer spending, according to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's last policy meeting on Dec. 12-13 released on Wednesday. The details of the meeting, at which the Fed raised interest rates for the fifth time since the 2008 financial crisis, also showed that officials have a similar lack of certainty over the impact of fiscal stimulus on raising price pressures. "Most participants reiterated their support for continuing a gradual approach to raising the target range, noting that this approach helped to balance risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation," the Fed said in the minutes.

 

Thursday brought ADP Employment Change and Unemployment Claims figures. Private sector employment increased by 250,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report. “We’ve seen yet another month where the labor market has shown no signs of slowing,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Throughout the year there was significant growth in services except for an overall loss of jobs in the shrinking information sector. Looking at company size, small businesses finished out 2017 on a high note adding more than double their monthly average for the past six months.”

 

In the week ending December 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 250,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 245,000 to 247,000. The 4-week moving average was 241,750, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 237,750 to 238,250. Claims taking procedures continue to be disrupted in the Virgin Islands. The claims taking process in Puerto Rico has still not returned to normal.

 

Friday's session was marked by NFP and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI figures. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in health care, construction, and manufacturing. In December, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.6 million, was essentially unchanged over the month. In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $26.63.

 

The NMI registered 55.9 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the November reading of 57.4 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. According to the NMI®, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. There has been a second consecutive month of pullback in the rate of growth. Overall, the majority of respondents’ comments indicate that they finished the year on a positive note. They also indicate optimism for business conditions and the economic outlook going forward.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

PPI (Thursday 14:30)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

CPI (Friday 14:30)

Retail Sales (Friday 14:30)

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