Sluggish data "all points to growth being only marginally positive at this stage and there’s certainly the risk of a negative quarter," said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Ltd. in Sydney, who now expects first-quarter GDP growth of around 0.2 percent rather than the 0.5-0.6 percent he previously penciled in.
Australian growth forecasts need to be revised
Weak signals from Australia are forcing economists to revisit their first-quarter growth forecasts. Some are even suggesting a contraction. Home building, net exports and household consumption could be a drag on gross domestic product for the first three months of 2017, according to some estimates. A negative print would raise the specter of recession, especially as a cyclone that ripped through Queensland’s key coal mining region is tipped to subtract from growth in the three months through June.
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