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Weak signals from Australia are forcing economists to revisit their first-quarter growth forecasts. Some are even suggesting a contraction. Home building, net exports and household consumption could be a drag on gross domestic product for the first three months of 2017, according to some estimates. A negative print would raise the specter of recession, especially as a cyclone that ripped through Queensland’s key coal mining region is tipped to subtract from growth in the three months through June.

Sluggish data "all points to growth being only marginally positive at this stage and there’s certainly the risk of a negative quarter," said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Ltd. in Sydney, who now expects first-quarter GDP growth of around 0.2 percent rather than the 0.5-0.6 percent he previously penciled in.

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