USD - Major events in the week ahead

Friday, Apr 28 2017

Events that marked the week:

On Tuesday CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales figures were published. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in March, declined in April. The Index now stands at 120.3 (1985=100), down from 124.9 in March. The Present Situation Index decreased from 143.9 to 140.6 and the Expectations Index declined from 112.3 last month to 106.7. “Consumer confidence declined in April after increasing sharply over the past two months, but still remains at strong levels,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

New U.S. single-family home sales surged to an eight-month high in March, pointing to underlying strength in the economy despite an apparent sharp slowdown in growth in the first quarter. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday new home sales jumped 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 621,00 units last month, the highest level since July 2016. February's sales pace was revised down to 587,000 units from the previously reported 592,000 units.

Thursday brought Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims data. Orders for durable goods rose less than forecast in March as demand for automobiles, fabricated-metal products and machinery all declined, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years rose 0.7 percent (forecast was 1.3 percent rise) after a 2.3 percent February advance that was higher than previously estimated.

In the week ending April 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 257,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 244,000 to 243,000. The 4-week moving average was 242,250, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending April 15, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate.

Friday was marked by Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI and GDP data. Household sentiment was little changed in April from the previous month, holding at an elevated level on optimism about personal finances, University of Michigan survey data showed. Final April index of sentiment stood at 97 (forecast was 98), after 96.9 in March, and down from a preliminary reading of 98. Current conditions gauge, which measures Americans’ perceptions of their personal finances, eased to 112.7 from 113.2 the prior month. The preliminary April reading was 115.2.

Earlier GDP and Chicago PMI figures were released. The MNI Chicago Business Barometer increased to 58.3 in April from 57.7 in March, the highest level since January 2015. Optimism among firms about business conditions rose for the third month in a row. Three of the five Barometer components led April’s increase, with Production and Order Backlogs receding.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.

This week markets will be looking at:

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday 16:00)

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wednesday 14:15)

FOMC Statement/Federal Funds Rate (Wednesday 20:00)

Trade Balance (Thursday 14:30)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)

More in this category: « Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Was Little Changed in April Melbourne Institute’s Australian Consumer Inflation Index Climbs 0.5% in April »