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In October 2016, the quantity of goods bought (volume) in the retail industry was estimated to have increased by 7.4% compared with October 2015; all store types showed growth with the largest contribution coming from non-store retailing. This is the highest rate of growth since April 2002. Compared with September 2016, the quantity bought was estimated to have increased by 1.9%; there were increases in all store types, except department stores. The largest contribution to growth came from textiles, clothing and footwear stores.

The underlying pattern in the retail industry continues to show strong growth with the 3 month on 3 month movement in the quantity bought increasing by 1.9%; this is the 34th consecutive period of 3 month on 3 month growth. Average store prices (including petrol stations) fell by 0.7% in October 2016 compared with October 2015; there were falls in average store price across all store types, except petrol stations. This is the smallest decrease since July 2014 and the latest Consumer Prices Index (CPI) shows that the largest upwards pressure on inflation is from transport costs.

 

Sterling is currently being traded around 1.2460 level. Pair is likely to find support around 1.24 area and resistance above 1.25 handle.

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