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Events that marked the week:

On Monday, US Manufacturing PMI figures were released. Activity in the US manufacturing sector registered a surprise increase in September, according to preliminary data released on Monday. In a report, market research group Markit said that its flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 53.2 in October from the prior month’s final reading of 51.5. Analysts had expected no change to September’s reading. Markit noted that the data showed the strongest upturn in business conditions for 12 months and that both output and new order growth hit one-year peaks.

Tuesday brought CB Consumer Confidence data. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in September, declined in October. The Index now stands at 98.6, down from 103.5 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased from 127.9 to 120.6, while the Expectations Index declined from 87.2 last month to 83.9. “Consumer confidence retreated in October, after back-to-back monthly gains,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.“

 

On Wednesday New Home Sales figures were released. New-home sales picked up in September, but hefty downward revisions to sales in earlier months point to a market still struggling for momentum. Sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That was 3.1% higher than August’s figures, which had originally been reported as 609,000. Sales in September were 29.8% higher compared to a year ago.

 

Thursday brought Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims figures. Orders for U.S. business equipment fell in September by the most in seven months, indicating corporate investment is having trouble gaining traction. Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft dropped 1.2 percent, erasing a 1.2 percent August gain that was stronger than previously reported, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.1 percent drop. Demand for all durable goods eased 0.1 percent.

 

Separate report on Unemployment Claims showed that in the week ending October 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 258,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 251,750 to 252,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 86 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.

 

Focus of the Friday's session was on GDP and Consumer Sentiment figures. Stronger-than-expected economic growth smooths the path for the U.S. Federal Reserve to signal a December interest rate hike when it meets next week. Third quarter GDP growth of 2.9 percent was better than the 2.5 percent that was expected by economists, and it also marked the best pace of growth in two years. With Friday's report, the economy closes in on the 3 percent level some economists had expected to see for the second half of the year.

 

Consumer confidence dropped more than previously reported to match the lowest level since 2014, with Americans less upbeat about both current and future conditions in the weeks before the presidential election. The University of Michigan said Friday that its final index of sentiment fell to 87.2 from 91.2 in September. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey called for 88.2 after a preliminary reading of 87.9 earlier this month. Long-term inflation expectations declined to a record low.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Chicago PMI (Monday 15:45)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday 16:00)

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wednesday 14:15)

Federal Funds Rate/FOMC Statement (Wednesday 20:00)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Thursday 16:00)

Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)

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