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Events that marked the week:

On Tuesday CB Consumer Confidence figures were released. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased slightly in July, increased in August. The Index now stands at 101.1 (1985=100), compared to 96.7 in July. The Present Situation Index rose from 118.8 to 123.0, while the Expectations Index improved from 82.0 last month to 86.4.

Wednesday brought ADP job and Pending Home Sales figures. Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report. “Job growth in August was stable and consistent with levels from previous months as consumer conditions improve,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute.

 

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 1.3 percent to 111.3 in July from a downwardly revised 109.9 in June and is now 1.4 percent higher than July 2015 (109.8). The index is now at its second highest reading this year after April (115.0). Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says a sizable jump in the West lifted pending home sales higher in July.

 

Thursday was marked by Unemployment Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures. In the week ending August 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 263,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 261,000. The 4-week moving average was 263,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 264,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 78 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.

 

Separate report on ISM Manufacturing PMI showed that the index dropped to 49.4, weaker than the most pessimistic estimate in a Bloomberg survey, from 52.6 in July. The decline of 3.2 points was the biggest since January 2014. Fresh orders to American factories shrank for the first time this year, as production was cut by the most since 2012 and employment fell, the report showed. The figures are surprising considering other data point to an economy that is bouncing back on the heels of still-robust consumer spending and progress in paring inventories.

 

On Friday NFP and Trade Balance figures were releaed. U.S. payrolls grew at a slower but solid pace in August while measures of labor slack were little changed, signs the job market is cooling as the economy approaches full employment. Payrolls climbed by 151,000 last month following a 275,000 gain in July that was larger than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed Friday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 180,000. The unemployment rate and labor participation rate held steady, while wage gains moderated and hours worked were the lowest since 2014.

 

Separate report on Trade Balance showed the trade gap narrowed 11.6 percent to $39.5 billion, declining after three straight months of increases. June's trade deficit was revised slightly up to $44.7 billion. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade gap decreasing to $42.7 billion in July after a previously reported $44.5 billion shortfall. When adjusted for inflation, the deficit dropped to $58.3 billion from $64.5 billion in June. The trade report added to upbeat reports on consumer spending, industrial production and residential construction that have suggested the economy has regained momentum after output increased 1.0 percent in the first half.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday 16:00)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

Last modified on Friday, 02 September 2016

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