On Tuesday CPI, Building Permits, Housing Starts and Industrial Production data was published. The U.S. cost of living was little changed in July, a sign subdued inflationary pressures will give Federal Reserve policy makers reason to keep interest rates low. It was the first time in five months the consumer-price index failed to advance and followed a 0.2 percent gain in June, Labor Department figures showed Tuesday in Washington. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.1 percent, less than projected.
U.S. home construction unexpectedly accelerated in July to the fastest pace in five months, indicating the housing industry remains an area of support for the economy. Residential starts increased 2.1 percent to a 1.211 million annualized rate, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, from 1.186 million in June, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday in Washington. Permits, a proxy for future construction, were little changed. Builders are responding to the strongest home sales since the start of the economic expansion, made possible by robust hiring and cheap financing.
Industrial production rose 0.7 percent in July after moving up 0.4 percent in June. The advance in July was the largest for the index since November 2014. Manufacturing output increased 0.5 percent in July for its largest gain since July 2015. The index for utilities rose 2.1 percent as a result of warmer-than-usual weather in July boosting demand for air conditioning. The output of mining moved up 0.7 percent; the index has increased modestly, on net, over the past three months after having fallen about 17 percent between December 2014 and April 2016. At 104.9 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in July was 0.5 percent lower than its year-earlier level.
Focus of the Wednesday's session was on FOMC Meeting Minutes. Federal Reserve policymakers agree that more economic data is needed before raising interest rates, although some see a need to tighten policy soon, according to the minutes from the U.S. central bank's July 26-27 policy meeting. The minutes, which were released on Wednesday, showed that members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee were generally upbeat about the U.S. economic outlook and labor market.
"Some ... members anticipated that economic conditions would soon warrant taking another step in removing policy accommodation," the Fed said in the minutes. Several Fed policymakers, however, said a slowdown in the future pace of hiring would argue against a near-term hike, and members of the FOMC said they wanted to "leave their policy options open."
Thursday was marked by Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index figures. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, reinforcing views of labor market strength that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon. Another report on Thursday showed a mild improvement in manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region this month amid rising shipments from factories. But weak orders and shrinking employment suggested the manufacturing malaise was far from over. The index for current manufacturing activity in the region rose 5 points to only 2.0 in August, as the share of firms reporting an increase in activity (35 percent) barely exceeded the share reporting a decrease (33 percent). This is only the third positive reading of the index in the current year.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 262,000 for the week ended Aug. 13, the Labor Department said. Economists had forecast initial claims slipping to 265,000 in the latest week. Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong labor market, for 76 straight weeks. That is the longest such stretch since 1973, when the labor market was much smaller. It is now viewed as either at or near full employment.
This week markets will be looking at:
New Home Sales (Tuesday 16:00)
Existing Home Sales (Wednesday 16:00)
Durable Goods Orders (Thursday 14:30)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Prelim GDP (Friday 10:30)